Category Signal Profiles
Each dress category has its own PEWS/DEWS — different signal weights, sources, lead times and false-positive gates. A saree algo is not a streetwear algo.
Saree (Occasion / Premium Drape)
India leads
Mill → Designer → Bollywood → POS → Global diaspora
Lead time: 20 weeks (mill silk) · Cycle: 36 wks
Banarasi
Kanjivaram
Organza
Tissue
Chanderi
PEWS GO threshold
56
DEWS exit gate
76
Signal layers
7
Killer (NOT) signals
3
PEWS equation — calibrated for Saree (Occasion / Premium Drape)
PEWS = ( 0.25·mill 0.20·designer 0.15·celebrity 0.15·social 0.10·premium-ec 0.10·boutique 0.05·meesho ) × Supply × Wedding × Celebrity
| Signal layer | Lead time | PEWS weight | DEWS weight | Sources (category-specific) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream silk mills + zari | 16–20 wks | 25% | 5% | Varanasi looms Kanchipuram clusters Surat zari Italian silk imports |
| Designer procurement | 12–16 wks | 20% | 5% | Sabyasachi atelier Manish Malhotra Pernia's brand sheets Karagiri Aza pre-orders |
| Celebrity + paparazzi | 6–10 wks | 15% | 5% | Cannes Met Gala diaspora Bollywood weddings Stylist IG (Ami Patel) |
| Social velocity (drape-tag) | 4–8 wks | 15% | 25% | Instagram drape reels Pinterest saree boards YouTube drape tutorials |
| Premium ecom listings | 3–6 wks | 10% | 15% | Pernia's Pop-Up Aza Fashions Ogaan Tata CLiQ Luxury |
| Boutique POS + reorders | 0–2 wks | 10% | 25% | Ekaya Tilfi Raw Mango Independent boutique POS |
| Meesho saturation (NOT) | window | 5% | 25% | Meesho category flood Amazon India listings explosion |